Friday, 7 December 2012

Gold Updates


Gold futures continued their southbound journey for the tenth trading day. This morning MCX February Gold so far has tested a low of Rs 31,062.

It may be recalled, that we have mentioned that Gold is likely to seek considerable support around the Rs 31,000-level.

Select momentum oscillators like the daily Stochastic Slow remains in the oversold zone, while the 14-day RSI is giving a positive divergence.

Even a 50 per cent retracement from the current levels, can give us a target of around Rs 31,750-odd levels in the next couple of trading sessions.

However, one needs to keep a stop around Rs 30,900 for fresh long positions.

In today's outlook, the Gold MCX February futures may face resistance around Rs 31,325-31,365-31,400. On the downside, Gold MCX may seek support around Rs 31,075-31,035-31,000.

The corresponding key levels for Gold Mini January futures are as follows - support at Rs 30,900-30,860-30,820, while face resistance around Rs 31,150-31,185-31,225.

Thursday, 29 November 2012

Gold Updates


Wednesday, 28 November 2012

Gold Updates



Bullion metals ended lower at Comex on Tuesday, 27 November 2012. Gold prices ended lower for second straight day as the dollar headed up and a sort of debt deal was reached at Greece. Upbeat US data also took some shine away.

Gold for December delivery fell $7.3 (0.4%) to settle at $1,742.3 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, December silver fell 16 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $33.98 an ounce.

In overnight trading, the European stock markets rallied only modestly on news that Euro zone leaders meeting in Brussels agreed late Monday to disburse fresh bailout funds to cash-starved Greece. Most market watchers had reckoned EU leaders would grant new monies to Greece. The world market place showed no significant reaction to the as-expected news on Greece.

A meeting to discuss Greece's finances wrapped up early Tuesday with Greece's institutional lenders reaching a deal to pave the way for Athens to receive almost 44 billion euros (almost $57 billion) of financial aid, while bringing its debt down to a sustainable level. The deal is expected to trigger another aid payment for the debt-struck country.

A heavy slate of U.S. economic data released Tuesday did show generally better-than-expected readings overall, and that put modest upside pressure on the U.S. dollar index, which in turn helped push gold and silver prices to their daily lows.

The dollar index, which weighs the strength of the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, rose by 0.2% on Tuesday. The Euro currency also was initially supported on the Greece news but could not hold those gains as the day wore on.

In today's economic news at Wall Street, Consumer confidence rose in November to its best reading in more than four years. The latest consumer confidence reading for November came in at 73.7, while market expected a reading of 73.0. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 73.7 in November from 73.1 in October. That's above the 72.2 level forecast. The October reading was upwardly revised from 72.2.

Separately, the September Housing Price Index from the FHFA increased by 1.1%, which follows a 0.7% increase observed during the prior month. Also, the September Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index rose by 3.0%, while a 3.1% increase had been expected. This followed the previous month's increase of 2.0%.

Durable goods orders were unchanged in October, which was better than the 0.4% decrease that had been expected. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders increased in October by 1.5%, which was better than the 0.4% decrease that had been broadly anticipated. Prior month's reading was revised down to reflect an increase of 1.7%.

Traders and investors are also focused on the negotiations among U.S. lawmakers and President Obama regarding the so-called “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that are approaching.

At the MCX, gold prices for February delivery closed lower by Rs 149 (0.45%) at Rs 32,594 per ten grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 32,825 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 32,550 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for December delivery closed lower by Rs 198 (0.31%) at Rs 63,536/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 63,877/kg and fell to a low of Rs 63,361/Kg during the day's trading.

Tuesday, 27 November 2012

Gold Updates


Monday, 26 November 2012

Gold Trading Level's

TUESDAY 27-11-2012


TRADING LEVELS FOR MORNING SESSION



 MCX DEC GOLD


SUPP     32300       32250        32190

RES       32415       32485        32565

Gold updates


The hard drop in Indian Rupee to the 2 ½ month lows bought the Indian metal to the new highs at the time when the marriage season picks up in India.

The Indian rupee continued to decline against the US dollar for the fifth day in early trade on Monday, on persistent dollar demand from banks and importers on the back of higher dollar in the overseas market.

The currency had tumbled by 30 paise to close at two-and-a-half-month low of 55.51 against the dollar in the previous session on Friday. Today it resumed higher at 55.45 per dollar but declined immediately to 55.61 per dollar before quoting at 55.58 per dollar at 10.40 am. It moved in a range of 55.42 per dollar and 55.61 per dollar during the morning deals.

MCX December gold futures are trading up almost by whopping Rs 200 at Rs 31400 per 10 grams, thanks to the cheap Indian Rupee.

On the other hand the international gold futures were little depresses trading down $ 2 at $ 1749 per ounce as the US dollar strengthened amid caution over developments in Europe. On Friday, they soared $23.20 to settle at $1,751.40, their highest level since Oct. 17.

The drop on Monday came as markets awaited the Eurogroup’s talks to approve disbursal of the next tranche of loans to Greece. The general mood in equity and currency trading also portrayed investor risk aversion, as markets digested the result of elections in Spain’s wealthy Catalonia region.

In the region’s elections, a nationalist party seeking a referendum on independence won less seats than required for an absolute majority, but enough to return as the single largest party in the local parliament.

The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other global currencies, rose to 80.269 during Asian trading hours from 80.190 Friday afternoon in North America.

Gold has been in demand in international market with several central banks also increasing gold as a part of their reserves with Brazil a latest one to do so. Gold rallied 11% this year as investors and central banks bought bullion to diversify assets.

According to a data provided by the International Monetary Fund, central banks from emerging markets continued to increase their holdings in October. Brazil, Turkey and Kazakhstan, all increased their gold holdings with an aim to diversify their foreign kitty in the back drop of growing macroeconomic uncertainty and ultra period of ultra loose monetary policies-which threatens currencies debasement.

Monday, 19 November 2012

Gold Updates


Gold Flattens After Recent Gains



Wall avenue scored its best session in more than two months the past helped by positive housing data and increasing confidence that a U.S.budget deal would be reached to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff.”


In the present day, Asian stocks rose Tuesday after an overnight rally for global stocks on optimism the U.S. fiscal-cliff will be averted, though higher valuations after recent gains and a pre-market downgrade of France’s credit rating helped cap gains.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.9%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.5% each, and Taiwan’s Tai ex gained 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose a modest 0.1% after leading market gains over the past few sessions, while China’s Shanghai compound Index slipped 0.1% after a higher opening.

During the Tokyo midday break, the Bank of Japan released its latest policy decision, keeping its interest-rate target and asset-buying program unmoved.


Gold Updates


The MCX Silver futures broke above Rs 61000 per kg levels today as a good amount of fresh buying helped the metal amid mostly positive movement in global risky assets. The US dollar slipped as US Congressional leaders met with President Barack Obama on Friday and said they would work to find common ground on taxes and spending. This boosted hopes that the world's largest economy would be successfully able to combat with the looming "fiscal cliff". Gains in other industrial commodities like Copper and Crude oil also boosted the metal. COMEX Silver futures are trading at $32.60, up 2.3 cents or 0.73% on the day.

Silver futures extended a downward run from its highs near $35 per ounce achieved in the first week of October 2012. LME Copper tested its two-month lows and kept Silver in tight ranges. Silver is linked directly to industrial activity and safe haven demand and a drop in copper is normally supposed to have a negative influence on the white metal. The commodity tested its two-month lows near $30 per ounce and closed at $32.37, up nearly 5% on the fortnight. The prices have been locked in a broad range of $30-35 per ounce over last few days and a break on the either side is needed for further direction.

Precious metals consultancy GFMS estimates that industrial demand for silver fell 6% in 2012, driven by weak economic growth in developed countries. Manufacturers continued to find ways to substitute cheaper raw materials in place of silver. Meanwhile, consumers have cut purchases of silverware and shifted away from costly precious metals in their jewelry purchases. The trend was partially offset by rising sales in emerging markets, particularly China, GFMS said. While the industrial demand dropped, silver mine supply rose for the 10th consecutive year in 2012, and is expected to total 797.0 million ounces, up 4.3% from 763.8 million ounces in 2011, according to the consultancy.

The white metal had neared $32.30 per ounce levels earlier in the session but edged up quite impressively thereafter, adding one full dollar during the day. The Asian equities added good gains following a near 1.5% surge in Japanese stocks while the European stocks are also up by nearly 1%. MCX Silver futures are trading at Rs 61038, up Rs 168 or 0.26% on the day. The open interest in the counter is up nearly 4% - indicating fresh buying.

Sunday, 18 November 2012

Gold updates


Gold futures began week on strong note in Asia electronic trades today, after retreating 1% last week on ongoing fears over the looming fiscal crisis in the U.S. and growing tension in the Middle East.

December delivery gold futures are trading up $7.3 at $ 1722 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The counter may find support near $1685 levels with resistance near $1740 levels in the near term.

Silver for December delivery fell 1.1% on Friday to settle the week at $32.30 a troy ounce. Earlier in the session, silver futures touched a one-week low of $32.02 a troy ounce. On the week, silver futures shed 0.7%.

Investors continue to remain concerned over the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1. Congressional leaders said talks with President Barack Obama on Friday to avert the fiscal crisis were "constructive."

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the seven weeks left before the January 1 deadline.

Gold hit a one-week low of $1,704.55 a troy ounce on Thursday, after the World Gold Council said global demand for the precious metal dropped 11% in the third quarter.

In the coming week, market participants will be focusing on developments relating to the U.S. fiscal cliff, as well as Tuesday’s meeting of the euro group of finance ministers to discuss unlocking Greece’s next aid installment.

MCX December gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 31670 levels with resistance near Rs 31700 -750 levels.

Thursday, 8 November 2012

Gold Bulls Ecstatic:

An Obama win favors a continuation of the current easy money policy. The Obama win did remove uncertainty about the future of Fed policy.  The Fed’s increased emphasis on employment is here to stay. The Gold Markets reward this certainty by bidding up Gold, selling off the US Dollar versus all major currencies. Comex gold and silver shot up higher on Expectations of an Obama win & also as the market recovered from the rather hard slide that it took on Friday when Gold markets priced in a Romney win. Gold & Silver will retain bullishness till the easy monetary policy remains in force as Inflation rises are a certain aftereffect of this kind of a policy action. The Fed’s easy-money policy has pushed down the value of the dollar, though, and some worry more dollar weakness may be in store, particularly if investors see signs of rising Inflation. Gold remains a natural hedge option in a scenario where Inflation rises sharply. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The Fed’s increased emphasis on employment is here to stay. The US Dollar reversed earlier gains versus the Euro after Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney, on speculation Obama’s re-election as President will boost chances of the US continuing monetary stimulus policies that tend to weaken the currency. The US Federal Reserve had unveiled a plan in September 2012, to buy $40 billion of MBS – Mortgage-backed securities every month in a third round of so-called quantitative easing – QE3, after $2.3 trillion purchases of bonds from December 2008 and June 2011. Any worries that the Federal Reserve is done with stimulus are unfounded and the future still looks bright for more easing programs. Fed may soon introduce a new plan of Treasury purchases when Operation Twist winds down into year-end. A Chinese National Party Congress should be favorable to industrial metals, crude oil and gold due to prospects for new stimulus policies. Also if Greece passes austerity measures and receives further financial assistance, “this should make markets feel better and help commodities to move higher. We should start seeing more demand for gold as a result of purchasing-power hedging and due to the low opportunity cost to hold it, as real interest rates are likely to decline further. It could be argued that the Fed would not mind higher inflation, and that if there was a policy error to be made, it would be on the side of inflation. All above mentioned factors are highly Gold supportive. Lower interest rates historically have helped gold prices and higher rates have been gold-negative.

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Gold updates


Tuesday, 30 October 2012

Comex Gold Future


Gold futures are trading flat in Asia electronic trades today post the damaging hurricane Sandy which left more than 35 dead, millions without power, and cities and towns flooded.

Sandy’s storm surge neared 14 feet, driving water into the still-open construction pit at the World Trade Center and flooding parts of the New York subway system. President Barack Obama declared a major disaster in New York and Long Island.

Asian shares advanced on Wednesday, with investors eyeing local earnings results and the impact from super storm Sandy in the U.S. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average advanced 1% after losing 1% in the previous session. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.7%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index also gained 0.7%. In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.6%, but the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.2%.

U.S. markets remained closed Tuesday for the second day after storm system Sandy brought widespread flooding and power outages to New York City, among other places.

Yesterday, Bank of Japan announced near the close of trading that it would expand its asset-buying program by ¥11 trillion to a total of ¥91 trillion. But the Bank of Japan also introduced a new lending facility to stimulate bank loans and issued an unprecedented joint statement with the Finance Ministry, highlighting its commitment to fighting deflation.

COMEX December gold futures are trading up 2 cents at $ 1712.3 per ounce in Asia electronic trades today. Yesterday, it advanced $3.40, or 0.2%, to settle $1,712.10 an ounce.

Floor trading remained closed Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange after Hurricane Sandy triggered an evacuation order Monday. Metals futures prices settled at their usual times.

MCX December gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 31090 levels with resistance near Rs 31140 levels.

MCX Gold News

Tuesday, 23 October 2012

COMEX Gold Updates



Global markets shriveled yesterday on world economic worries. The Japanese exports tumbled by 10.3% in the year to September, recording a drop for fourth consecutive month. This was the biggest drop in the measure for nearly 18 months. This hurt the sentiments on worries that the global economy is extending its weak run and demand for copper might slow in near term.

Further, the German central bank stated that there are increasing signs that a perceptible expansion of economic growth in the third quarter of 2012 will be followed by stagnation or even a slight decrease in gross domestic product in the final quarter of the year. In the final quarter of 2012, the German growth is likely to slow substantially as economic weakness in a number of Eurozone countries puts the brakes on growth.


Thursday, 18 October 2012

Gold Updates


Gold futures tumbled below $1750 an ounce in early European session today as the US dollar strengthened thus pressurizing the dollar denominated assets.

Improved U.S. data and optimism over developments in Europe this week have helped to boost the dollar and euro against the yen. The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose to 79.147, up from 79.022 in late North American trade Wednesday, helping cap gains.

An ounce of gold on COMEX division of New York Mercantile Exchange is trading down $5.3 at $ 1747.7 in early London trades.

Domestic gold futures for December delivery are trading flat at Rs 31142 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange. It opened higher at Rs 31,171 per 10 grams on Thursday against the previous close of Rs 31,140. The depreciating rupee will limit any sharp fall in gold prices during the day.

The traders are suggested to sell the counter only on break of Rs 31115 with target of Rs 31070 and Rs 31010 with stop loss of Rs 31140.

On the data front today, it showed that Australia's economy has been hit by weaker commodity prices this year, but recent interest rate cuts should soften the blow, a top executive at the country's Treasury department said Thursday. Slowing growth in China, the country's biggest trading partner, has led to sharp falls in key industrial commodity prices in recent times, buffeting Australian exports. The RBA has cut interest rates by 1.5 percentage points since November, with financial markets expecting more to come over the next year as the economy slows and unemployment rises.

Also, China gross domestic product grew 7.4% in the third quarter, marking the lowest level since early 2009. But along with the GDP figures, industrial output for September rose 9.2% year-on-year, accelerating from 8.9% in August, while retail sales gained 14.2%, up from August’s 13.2%.

Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Gold Updates



MCX Gold  December delivery is trading down 1.7 at $ 1751.3 per small amount on the Comex distribution of the New York commercial Exchange. Yesterday, it raised $6.7, or 0.4%, to end at $1,753 an small amount.

The frost dollar index, which measures the greenback against a holder of six other currencies, fell by almost 0.4% on Wednesday. Late Tuesday, Moody’s confirmed its rating on Spain, though still with a negative outlook, even as a lower had been long awaited. That offered some relief to Spanish bonds and stocks, lifting global stock market.

The mcx data releases showed that the weekly MBA credit Index showed a 4.2% decrease in new mortgage applications during the past week. This follows last week's 1.2% refuse.

individually, housing starts hit an annualized rate of 872,000 units during September. Market had expected for housing starts to hit an annual rate closer to 815,000. As for building permits, they increased from the prior month's rate of 801,000 to 894,000 for September. That is above the pace of 815,000 building permits that had been expected.

MCX December gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 31120 levels with support around Rs 31080 and Rs 31020 levels. Yesterday, it closed higher by Rs 100 (0.32%) at Rs 31,140 per ten grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 31,163 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 31,041 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

USD Economic Buzz


Brent futures held steady near USD 114 on Wednesday as expectations Europe's financial crisis is on the mend renewed hopes of a revival in oil demand growth, while simmering tension in the Middle East provided additional support.

Asian shares, the euro, base metals and gold all rose after Moody's Investors Service affirmed its investment grade rating on Spain, helping ease investor worries of a worsening crisis in the region. Oil was also supported by supply concerns as the European Union slapped fresh sanctions on Iran.

Brent slipped 12 cents to USD 113.88 a barrel by 0432 GMT. The November contract, which expired on Tuesday, went off the board 73 cents lower at USD 115.07, while the December one settled 40 cents lower at USD 114.00. US oil gained 18 cents to $92.27.

"We are seeing prices react to the investment grade news for Spain, but the demand outlook continues to look weak because of the global economic condition," said Victor Shum, managing director at IHS Purvin and Gertz in Singapore. "Prices are drawing support from supply concerns in the Middle East."

European Union governments imposed sanctions against major Iranian state companies in the oil and gas industry and strengthened restrictions on the central bank.

More than 30 firms and institutions were listed in the EU's Official Journal as targets for asset freezes in the EU, including the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), a large crude exporter, and the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC).

The United States and the European Union are putting pressure on Iran to stop its disputed nuclear programme, while Tehran says it needs the technology to generate electricity.

Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Gold Updates


Gold is a natural hedge against sure shot future Inflation in an era of ultra-loose monetary policy. Comex Gold and Silver declined after a US economic data report showed a sharp decline in weekly U.S. jobless claims & late Wednesday news that the Standard & Poor’s ratings agency downgraded Spain’s credit rating to near junk status. The Euro currency sold off and the US dollar index rallied in the immediate aftermath of that news. The S & P move was a bit surprising to the market place, but not really a significant shocker to change the overall perception of Spain’s financial condition or the overall EU debt crisis. This in fact bolsters ideas that Spain will seek further bailout funds from the EU sooner rather than later. Labor Department figures showed yesterday initial applications for U.S. jobless benefits fell 30,000 to total 339,000 in the week ended Oct. 6, the fewest in more than four years. Reports also indicate that Indian demand for gold exchange traded funds – Gold ETF’s was at a record high in September, despite weak retail sales of gold jewelry in the country. Some heightened Middle East tensions supported Crude Oil, and did offset a bearish U.S. weekly DOE storage report. The open-ended nature of the QE3 promises Higher Inflation & that in turn promises for higher Gold Prices. With a lot of political manipulations coming into play now, a fresh rally in Gold seems to occur only closer to or post the U.S. elections now. Any news of fresh Bailout packages for Greece or Spain may trigger some movements, though even that seems possible only close to the month end or by early November. Any decline in Gold may be erratic and uneven as it is more susceptible to easing policies and less vulnerable to slowing growth concerns compared to other commodity movements. Gold will also garner huge support on all declines as Inflation seems absolutely unavoidable on the back of a limitless QE3. Inflation rise is now only a matter of time & Gold the only natural hedge. The central bank Gold purchases are expected to continue, especially by emerging market central banks who are looking to diversify their foreign exchange holdings. Rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Spain’s credit rating by two levels, and now the country’s rating is only one notch above junk level. There is a greater chance that Spain will ask for financial aid and of the ECB having to make good on its promise to buy Spanish government bonds. This will push the Euro up & in turn trigger a rally in Gold prices.
 

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